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October 13th, 2004, 03:35 AM
jumper69

Quote:

Even if I weren't a Bush supporter, if I were a betting man (and I am) my bet goes for a Bush victory. The Democrats simply made the choice too easy for a lot of people. I think most votes for Kerry are simply a vote against Bush and a lot of Bush votes are simply "well he's better than the other one.." We aren't very spoiled for choice this election. And I say that even as a Bush supporter. Aren't there any FDRs or Ronald Reagans left out there?

Pretty much can't argue with this....

Although for ever poll Lake can find citing a Bush victory, I can find a poll claiming Kerry wins.

We'll know who wins on Nov 3rd and not a minute before....polls be damned.
October 13th, 2004, 12:11 PM
reason

Quote:

Originally posted by gae:
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 260 Bush 274

Did math get changed on me again? 274 is more than 260.

It looks to change daily. Bush has regained momentum.
October 13th, 2004, 01:37 PM
gae

Today's numbers:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 228 Bush 291
October 13th, 2004, 01:50 PM
Gunslinger

Quote:

Originally posted by reason:

It looks to change daily. Bush has regained momentum.

Just one of the many reasons as to why I hate polls.
October 13th, 2004, 02:43 PM
LAKE

Latest Polls Added:
NJ: Kerry +6% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
NJ: Kerry +5% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
WI: Bush +4% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
WI: Bush +5% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
PA: Bush +1% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
PA: Bush +3% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
OH: Bush +6% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
OH: Bush +8% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
IA: Bush +2% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)
IA: Bush +3% (Strategic Vision 10/09 - 10/11)

[img]graemlins/thumbs_up.gif[/img] [img]graemlins/thumbs_up.gif[/img] [img]graemlins/thumbs_up.gif[/img] [img]graemlins/thumbs_up.gif[/img] Source.

[ October 13, 2004 11:43 AM: Message edited by: LAKE ]
October 13th, 2004, 02:54 PM
reason

I think the polls this year are less meaningful than in the past.

First of all, you have a lot of newly registered voters who will be unpredictable.

Secondly, you've got concentrated segments of the population who will come out in droves to vote one way or another. When you have ultra strong pockets of support on either side, I think it's difficult even for a scientific poll to pick that up.

For example, my street has maybe 60 homes, at least 15 of them have Kerry signs. No Bush signs. I don't think a poll is going to accurately pick up the extreme "lumpiness" of the voting blocks that are hellbent on making their candidate win.

It wasn't like this 4 years ago. Not at all.

[ October 13, 2004 11:54 AM: Message edited by: reason ]
October 20th, 2004, 11:51 PM
LanDroid

My goodness, Lake is correct, this IS very good news! As of today the electoral count is:

Kerry 291
Bush 247

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
October 21st, 2004, 03:18 PM
Boo Boo

Quote:

For example, my street has maybe 60 homes, at least 15 of them have Kerry signs. No Bush signs. I don't think a poll is going to accurately pick up the extreme "lumpiness" of the voting blocks that are hellbent on making their candidate win.

Maybe because the Bush signs are stolen faster than you can replace them. [img]tongue.gif[/img]
October 21st, 2004, 06:31 PM
reason

Quote:

Originally posted by Oldie Blonde Kenobi:
<blockquote>quote:<hr />For example, my street has maybe 60 homes, at least 15 of them have Kerry signs. No Bush signs. I don't think a poll is going to accurately pick up the extreme "lumpiness" of the voting blocks that are hellbent on making their candidate win.

Maybe because the Bush signs are stolen faster than you can replace them. [img]tongue.gif[/img] <hr /></blockquote>I dunno. I lost my Kerry sign. Poof! Gone.
October 21st, 2004, 06:34 PM
reason

Here's another one for you to follow.

Kerry 290
Bush 231
Undecided 17

LINK

I like this one because it specifically details what polls were used and when.

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